LinkedIn / Inter-American Development Bank: Research for G20 Countries

11 April 2018

Introduction

This research was conducted in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) for presentation at the Employment Working Group meeting of the G20 on April 11th, 2018
LinkedIn data was analyzed to understand:
1. What are the most emerging and declining roles?
2. What are the skills most associated with these roles?
3. For declining skills, how transferable are they to other areas of the labor market?
4. For emerging occupations, how is talent migrating across the world?
This document is meant to be an interactive complement to the work presented to the G20

Included hiring data based on member profiles from 2008 - 2017
For each position on a member's profile, we looked at the starting year of that role. That was considered the year of hire.
Only members who have logged into LinkedIn from 2017 onwards were included in the data to ensure that profile information was up to date
Internships and volunteer positions were removed from the data
Countries included: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, France, India, Mexico, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States
Occupations included reflect 275 occupations from LinkedIn's taxonomy
When analyzing labor market insights, we only use anonymized, aggregated data. As a members-first organization, the privacy of our members is LinkedIn's first priority.

For each country and year, hiring for an occupation was calculated as a proportion of total hiring for that country-year, giving us a time-series dataset of hiring proportions for each occupation
Occupations that are emerging and declining are defined as those with the greatest increase or decrease (respectively) in hiring proportions over the observed period
To smooth out noise and variance from year to year, a linear regression was fit to each country+occupation combination
Identification of emerging and declining occupations are therefore based on the slope of each regression line

The chart to the left shows a selection of randomly sampled country+occupation combinations
For each country+occupation, the observed time-series of hiring proportion is shown along with the fitted regression line

The charts to the left show the smoothed hiring proportions resulting from the linear fits
Within a single occupation, we see variation between different countries in terms of an occupation's growth or decline
Steeper slopes point to emerging or declining occupations